Publications

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi-disciplinary teams to ensure model outputs are appropriately based, interpreted and communicated.

Background: Measurement of mortality and injury in conflict situations presents many challenges compared with stable situations. However, providing information is important to assess the impact of conflict on populations and to estimate humanitarian needs,

both in the immediate and longer term. Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, was overrun by fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on June 4, 2014. In this study, we conducted household surveys to measure reported deaths, injuries, and kidnappings in Mosul, Iraq, both during the occupation of the city by fighters of ISIS and the months of Iraqi military action known as the liberation.

Methods and findings: Mosul was overrun by ISIS forces on June 4, 2014, and was under exclusive ISIS control for 29 months. The military offensive by Iraqi forces, supported by coalition artillery and airstrikes, began on October 17, 2016, in east Mosul and concluded in west Mosul with the defeat of ISIS on June 29, 2017. We conducted a 40-cluster population-based survey as soon as the security forces permitted access for the survey team. The objective of the survey was to measure reported deaths, injuries, and kidnappings in Mosul households during 29 months of ISIS-exclusive control (June 2014-October 2016) and the nine months of Iraqi military action known as the liberation (October 2016±June 2017). In east Mosul, the survey was conducted from March 23 to March 31, 2017, and in west Mosul from July 18 to July 31, 2017. Sampling was based on pre-ISIS population distribution, with revisions made following the extensive destruction in west Mosul. The 1,202 sampled households included 7,559 persons: 4,867 in east Mosul and 2,692 in west Mosul. No households declined to participate.During the time from June 4, 2014, to the time of the survey, there were 628 deaths reported from the sampled households, of which 505 were due to intentional violence, a mortality rate of 2.09 deaths per 1,000 person-months. Over the entire time period, the group with the highest mortality rates from intentional violence was adults aged 20 to 39: 1.69 deaths per 1,000 person-months among women and 3.55 among men. In the 29 months of ISIS-exclusive control, mortality rates among all males were 0.71 reported deaths per 1,000 person-months and for all females were 0.50 deaths per 1,000 person-months.

During the nine months of the military liberation, the mortality rates jumped to 13.36 deaths per 1,000 person-months for males and 8.33 for females. The increase was particularly dramatic in west Mosul. The leading cause of reported deaths from intentional violence was airstrikesÐaccounting for 201 civilian deathsÐfollowed by 172 deaths from explosions. Reported deaths from airstrikes were most common in west Mosul, while reported deaths from explosions were similar on both sides of Mosul. Gunshots accounted for 86 cases, predominantly in west Mosul where ISIS snipers were particularly active. There were 35 persons who were reported to have been kidnapped, almost entirely prior to the military offensive. By the time of the survey, 20 had been released, 8 were dead, and 7 still missing, according to household reports. Almost all of the 223 injuries reported were due to intentional violence. Limitations to population-based surveys include a probable large survivor bias, the reliance on preconflict population distribution figures for sampling, and potential recall bias among respondents.

Conclusions: Death and injuries during the military offensive to liberate Mosul considerably exceeded those during ISIS occupation. Airstrikes were the major reported cause of deaths, with the majority occurring in west Mosul. The extensive use of airstrikes and heavy artillery risks an extensive loss of life in densely populated urban areas. The high probability of survivor bias in this survey suggests that the actual number of injuries, kidnappings, and deaths in the neighborhoods sampled is likely to be higher than we report here.

Measurement of mortality and injury in conflict situations presents many challenges compared with stable situations. However, providing information is important to assess the impact of conflict on populations and to estimate humanitarian needs, both in the immediate and longer term. Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, was overrun by fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on June 4, 2014. In this study, we conducted household surveys to measure reported deaths, injuries, and kidnappings in Mosul, Iraq, both during the occupation of the city by fighters of ISIS and the months of Iraqi military action known as the liberation.

holera remains a persistent health problem in sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide. Cholera can be controlled through appropriate water and sanitation, or by oral cholera vaccination, which provides transient (∼3 years) protection, although vaccine supplies remain scarce. We aimed to map cholera burden in sub-Saharan Africa and assess how geographical targeting could lead to more efficient interventions.

There is evidence to suggest that the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), in particular cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, are being recognized as forming a substantial proportion of the burden of disease among populations in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).  Access to treatment is likely a key barrier to the control and prevention of NCD outcomes.  Differential pricing, an approach used to price drugs based on the purchasing power of patients in different socioeconomic segments, has been shown to be beneficial and leads to improved access and affordability.

We appreciate the great interest that the commentators had in reading our article, “The potential efficacy of psychological first aid on self-reported anxiety and mood” (Everly et al., 2016). We further understand the importance of making contributions to a unique field wherein major international health organizations have taken the unusual stance of supporting the use of psychological first aid (PFA) in advance of the emergence of supportive clinical trials (see Everly and Lating, 2017, for a review). We recognize and respect that a field advances from good discourse, and we agree with the commentators when they “urgently call for more research in the area, either in a more controlled laboratory setting or in a field situation.” This was clearly the intent and stated purpose of our pilot study

Latino immigrants face many stressors before, during, and after migration to the U.S., but there are few mental health services available to help them cope with this transition. We established free group sessions moderated by bilingual therapists to address the unmet mental health needs of Latino immigrants.

This paper reports on: (1) an evaluation of a common elements treatment approach (CETA) developed for comorbid presentations of depression, anxiety, traumatic stress, and/or externalizing symptoms among children in three Somali refugee camps on the Ethiopian/Somali border, and (2) an evaluation of implementation factors from the perspective of staff, lay providers, and families who engaged in the intervention.

Violent attacks on and interferences with hospitals, ambulances, health workers, and patients during conflict destroy vital health services during a time when they are most needed and undermine the long-term capacity of the health system. In Syria, such attacks have been frequent and intense and represent grave violations of the Geneva Conventions, but the number reported has varied considerably. A systematic mechanism to document these attacks could assist in designing more protection strategies and play a critical role in influencing policy, promoting justice, and addressing the health needs of the population.

Building upon the successes of Countdown to 2015, Countdown to 2030 aims to support the monitoring and measurement of women's, children's, and adolescents' health in the 81 countries that account for 95% of maternal and 90% of all child deaths worldwide. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, the rate of decline in prevalence of maternal and child mortality, stillbirths, and stunting among children younger than 5 years of age needs to accelerate considerably compared with progress since 2000. Such accelerations are only possible with a rapid scale-up of effective interventions to all population groups within countries (particularly in countries with the highest mortality and in those affected by conflict), supported by improvements in underlying socioeconomic conditions, including women's empowerment. Three main conclusions emerge from our analysis of intervention coverage, equity, and drivers of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) in the 81 Countdown countries. First, even though strong progress was made in the coverage of many essential RMNCH interventions during the past decade, many countries are still a long way from universal coverage for most essential interventions. Furthermore, a growing body of evidence suggests that available services in many countries are of poor quality, limiting the potential effect on RMNCH outcomes. Second, within-country inequalities in intervention coverage are reducing in most countries (and are now almost non-existent in a few countries), but the pace is too slow. Third, health-sector (eg, weak country health systems) and non-health-sector drivers (eg, conflict settings) are major impediments to delivering high-quality services to all populations. Although more data for RMNCH interventions are available now, major data gaps still preclude the use of evidence to drive decision making and accountability. Countdown to 2030 is investing in improvements in measurement in several areas, such as quality of care and effective coverage, nutrition programmes, adolescent health, early childhood development, and evidence for conflict settings, and is prioritising its regional networks to enhance local analytic capacity and evidence for RMNCH.

Monitoring and evaluation of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) programs is critical to facilitating learning and providing accountability to stakeholders. As part of an inter-agency effort to develop recommendations on MHPSS monitoring and evaluation, this scoping review aimed to identify the terminology and focus of monitoring and evaluation frameworks in this field.

BACKGROUND: The burden of uncontrolled hypertension in Low-and-Middle Income Countries (LMICs) is high, with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and chronic renal failure in these settings.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the factors associated with uncontrolled blood pressure control in a cross-section of Ghanaian hypertensive subjects involved in an on-going multicenter epidemiological study aimed at improving access to hypertension treatment.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study involving 2,870 participants with hypertension with or without diabetes who were enrolled at 5 hospitals in Ghana (2 tertiary, 2 district and 1 rural hospital). Data on demographics, medical history, lifestyle factors, anti-hypertensive medications and treatment adherence were collected. The 14-item version of the Hill-Bone compliance to high blood pressure therapy scale was used to assess adherence to treatment in 3 domains namely adherence to medications, salt intake and clinic appointments. Questionnaires on knowledge, attitudes and practices on hypertension, sources of antihypertensive medications and challenges with accessing these medications were also administered. Blood pressure, weight and height were measured for each subject at enrollment. Factors associated with uncontrolled blood pressure (>140/90mmHg) were assessed using a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS: The mean ± SD age of study participants was 58.9 ± 16.6 years, with a female preponderance (76.8%). Among study participants, 1,213 (42.3%) study participants had blood pressure measurements under control. Factors that remained significantly associated with uncontrolled blood pressure with adjusted OR (95% CI) included receiving therapy at a tertiary level of care: 2.47 (1.57-3.87), longer duration of hypertension diagnosis: 1.01 (1.00-1.03), poor adherence to therapy: 1.21 (1.09-1.35) for each 5 points higher score on the Hill-Bone scale, reported difficulties in obtaining antihypertensive medications: 1.24 (1.02-1.49) and number of antihypertensive medications prescribed: 1.32 (1.21-1.44).

CONCLUSION:  We have found high rates of uncontrolled blood pressure among Ghanaian patients with hypertension accessing healthcare in public institutions. The system-level and individual-level factors associated with poor blood pressure control should be addressed to improve hypertension management among Ghanaians.

Since Feb 4, 2018, Syrian forces with Russian support have bombarded Eastern Ghouta, an enclave out of government control near Damascus. This military action has killed hundreds of civilians and injured more than 1550 people as of Feb 21, 2018, in an area where about 390 000 people, most of whom are civilians, have lived under siege since October, 2013. The recent escalation is reportedly part of a Syrian Government offensive supported by its Russian and Iranian allies to retake Ghouta. In just 1 day, on Feb 20, 2018, PAX, an international peace movement, documented 110 civilians killed and hundreds injured in 131 air strikes, 44 barrel bombs, 28 surface-to-surface “elephant” missiles, five cluster bombs, and countless other artillery and rocket fire. Amnesty International sees this as continuing “war crimes on an epic scale”.

There is a severe shortage of specialist mental healthcare providers in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) affected by humanitarian crises. In these settings, talking therapies may be delivered by non-specialists, including lay workers with no tertiary education or formal certification in mental health. This systematic review will synthesise the literature on the implementation and effectiveness of talking therapies delivered by lay workers in LMICs affected by humanitarian crises, in order to develop a Theory of Change (ToC).

Five years of conflict in Syria have led to 13.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 6.6 million internally displaced people. Humanitarian needs are ever-increasing as an inability to maintain humanitarian corridors and ceasefires continue. In light of the protracted nature of the conflict, immense needs, and dearth of large-scale data, we undertook this assessment to inform humanitarian response.

Sexual violence is associated with a multitude of poor physical, emotional, and social outcomes. Despite reports of stigma by sexual violence survivors, limited evidence exists on effective strategies to reduce stigma, particularly in conflict-affected settings. We sought to assess the effect of group Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT) on stigma and the extent to which stigma might moderate the effectiveness of CPT in treating mental health problems among survivors of sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Limited knowledge exists to inform the selection and introduction of locally relevant, feasible, and effective mental health interventions in diverse socio-cultural contexts and health systems. We examined stakeholders' perspectives on mental health-related priorities, help-seeking behaviors, and existing resources to guide the development of a maternal mental health component for integration into non-specialized care in Soroti, eastern Uganda.

METHODS: We employed rapid ethnographic methods (free listing and ranking; semi-structured interviews; key informant interviews and pile sorting) with community health workers (n = 24), primary health workers (n = 26), perinatal women (n = 24), traditional and religious healers (n = 10), and mental health specialists (n = 9). Interviews were conducted by trained Ateso-speaking interviewers. Two independent teams conducted analyses of interview transcripts following an inductive and thematic approach. Smith's Salience Index was used for analysis of free listing data.

RESULTS: When asked about common reasons for visiting health clinics, the most salient responses were malaria, general postnatal care, and husbands being absent. Amongst the free listed items that were identified as mental health problems, the three highest ranked concerns were adeka na aomisio (sickness of thoughts); ipum (epilepsy), and emalaria (malaria). The terms epilepsy and malaria were used in ways that reflected both biomedical and cultural concepts of distress. Sickness of thoughts appeared to overlap substantially with major depression as described in international classification, and was perceived to be caused by unsupportive husbands, intimate partner violence, chronic poverty, and physical illnesses. Reported help-seeking for sickness of thoughts included turning to family and community members for support and consultation, followed by traditional or religious healers and health centers if the problem persisted.

CONCLUSION: Our findings add to existing literature that describes 'thinking too much' idioms as cultural concepts of distress with roots in social adversity. In addition to making feasible and effective treatment available, our findings indicate the importance of prevention strategies that address the social determinants of psychological distress for perinatal women in post-conflict low-resource contexts.

Social desirability bias and underreporting of HIV risk behaviors are significant challenges to the accurate evaluation of HIV prevention programs for orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in sub-Saharan Africa. Valid and reliable HIV risk behavior instruments are critical to address these challenges. We assessed the psychometric properties of two risk behavior measures, the World Aids Foundation Survey (WAF) and the Peer HIV Risk Behavior Screener (PHRBS), administered to 210 OVC in Zambia using Audio Computer Assisted Self-Interviewing. All WAF subscales exhibited good internal reliability (α > .80); only the Sexual Behavior Practices subscale strongly distinguished (P < .01) adolescents who engaged in HIV risk behaviors ("cases") from those who did not ("non-cases"). An 8-item version of the PHRBS, refined using exploratory factor analysis, demonstrated good internal reliability (α = 87), differentiated "cases" from "non-cases" (P < .01), and correlated strongly with the Sexual Behavior Practices subcale (r = .34, P < .01). Results suggest that report of peers' sexual behaviors can serve as a proxy for OVCs' own behavior in contexts where social desirability bias affects reporting.

The UN Convention against Torture defines torture as “any act by which severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person” by someone acting in an official capacity for purposes such as obtaining a confession or punishing or intimidating that person.1 It is unethical for healthcare professionals to participate in torture, including any use of medical knowledge or skill to facilitate torture or allow it to continue, or to be present during torture.234567 Yet medical participation in torture has taken place throughout the world and was a prominent feature of the US interrogation practice in military and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) detention facilities in the years after the attacks of 11 September 2001.891011 Little attention has been paid, however, to how a regime of torture affects the ability of health professionals to meet their obligations regarding routine clinical care for detainees.