The current Israel-Gaza war, which began on October 7, 2023, has had an immense humanitarian impact. This project aims to provide projections of excess mortality for different causes of excess mortality (mortality modules) in Gaza under three scenarios: 1) ceasefire, 2) status quo (continuation of conditions observed during the period of the war preceding the projections, and 3) escalation. These estimations will provide decision-makers and responders information to plan for and respond to different scenarios. The data may also be used to inform diplomatic efforts addressing this conflict. 

The current projection is for February 7 – August 6, 2024. Over the next five months, the project expects to publish periodic updates of the projections. The scenarios may be altered to reflect the evolution of the crisis, improved data or revised models.

The project is an independent academic collaboration between researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University and is funded by the UK Humanitarian Innovation Hub. 

For the complete report and more information about the project, visit www.gaza-projections.org.

The findings do not necessarily represent the views of the funder, the Johns Hopkins University, or the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The authors are solely responsible for the analysis and interpretation.

The funder had no role in shaping the analyses, this report, or other scientific outputs of the project.

This publication is partly based on third-party-generated data herein analyzed and interpreted, and it is not intended to question or challenge such data. 

Any geographical entities or references to armed conflict events are only for the purpose of the analysis/report, and do not imply acknowledgment or endorsement of facts relating to these geographical entities or events.