More than 74,000 people could die due to war and disease in Gaza over the next six months if the conflict escalates, according to projections from researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health. 

The 57-page report, titled “Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections,” stresses that it is not predicting what will happen in Gaza, but rather providing “a range of projections of what could happen under three distinct scenarios,” including an immediate permanent cease-fire, a continuation of current conditions, or a further escalation of the conflict. 

Researchers projected that, even with an immediate permanent cease-fire, there would be 6,550 more deaths in Gaza as a result of the war, “due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation and shelter conditions, reduce malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare services in Gaza.” If epidemic diseases occur, the projected number would rise to 11,580.