Under even the most optimistic scenario of an immediate ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, projections alarmingly predict as many as 6,550 excess deaths even in the absence of epidemics. This is the lowest imaginable and the grim number could escalate dramatically to between 58,260 and 74,290 excess deaths under the current conditions and a potential escalation of the conflict, respectively.

These forecasts are the findings of a collaborative project between the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University, aiming to inform humanitarian efforts and policy decisions amid the devastating war.

The projections – outlined in their report Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections – underscore the dual threats of infectious diseases and traumatic injuries as the primary causes of these excess deaths.