Estimating the demographic impact of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis in Latin America
Jenny García Arias
Latin American countries are vulnerable to a range of natural hazards, political and economic crises, and armed conflicts; however, little is known about the demographic impacts of those crises in the regional demography. The main objective of this project is to produce accurate demographic estimates that enlighten our understanding of the complex dimensions of a humanitarian crisis in Latin America, using Venezuela as an example. Venezuela is undergoing a profound social and economic crisis with far-reaching consequences for its demographic trends. As migration became the only survival strategy possible for most Venezuelans, the crisis spilled over the continent, leaving no country in Latin America unaffected. The project applies advanced statistical techniques and demographic (in)direct methods to (1) produce high-quality and updated demographic estimates of the crisis; (2) forecast demographic responses to the crisis to shed light on public policy design; and (3) use a cross-country comparison and regional perspective to account for the feedback effects among neighboring nations. Data comes from the population censuses, civil registration and vital statistics system and specialized surveys in Venezuela and the main countries of destination for Venezuelans in Latin America.
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